The US government has resumed operations after its longest shutdown in history, paving the way for the release of crucial federal data that is vital for assessing the country’s economic health and direction. This development is welcomed by economists, policymakers, and business leaders who rely heavily on this data for decision-making.
Starting next week, the backlog of federal data will begin to be released, with the much-anticipated September jobs report set to be published on Thursday, November 20, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This announcement follows weeks of uncertainty during the 43-day shutdown, which left many data points uncollected, creating potential gaps in the forthcoming reports.
Unprecedented Data Challenges
The shutdown has created a unique situation where several key economic reports are delayed or incomplete. Reports that typically include September data and were scheduled for release in October and early November were not delivered, with the exception of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Other major reports, such as wholesale inflation, import and export prices, and gross domestic product (GDP), are pending.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is working to update its schedule for economic releases, consulting with the Census Bureau and other data suppliers. The Census Bureau has announced revised release dates for construction spending, manufacturers’ shipments, and international trade data, set to be released next week.
Impact on Economic Indicators
Each economic data series will be differently affected by the shutdown, depending on how and when the data was collected. Erica Groshen, a former BLS Commissioner, emphasized that Principal Federal Economic Indicators would be prioritized. These indicators, including the jobs report and CPI, are essential for understanding the US economy’s condition.
October Data: A Month Lost?
October 2025 may be considered a “lost” month for data collection, as the shutdown disrupted the processes of collecting, analyzing, and disseminating information. The jobs report, for example, relies on two surveys: one of businesses and one of households. While the business survey is automated, the household survey, crucial for labor force estimates, was not conducted.
Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, noted that the lack of a complete employment snapshot is problematic, especially given the labor market’s pre-shutdown instability. However, a rough picture of the job market can still be constructed using payroll estimates and private hiring data.
Inflation Data Concerns
October’s inflation data is expected to be particularly opaque. The CPI data, which relies heavily on in-person data collection, was not gathered, impacting the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Mike Reid, senior US economist at RBC, highlighted the potential for data quality issues due to increased reliance on imputation methods.
November and Beyond: The Road to Recovery
Although the shutdown lasted through nearly half of November, economists expect all major reports to be released. However, the data might involve more imputations, and staffing levels at agencies like the BLS could impact data collection efforts. Erica Groshen pointed out that BLS is operating with reduced resources, complicating efforts to catch up.
Looking forward, it may take until early 2026 for the statistical machinery to fully recover. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, suggests that a clean view of macroeconomic data might not be available until February 2026, when January data is released.
Market Reactions and Future Implications
The reopening of the government has already influenced market behavior. Wall Street experienced its worst day in a month as investors anticipated a flood of data releases. Ed Yardeni, an economist at Yardeni Research, humorously noted the market’s reaction to the government’s reopening, suggesting that data dependency might not be as enjoyable as speculation.
As federal data begins to flow again, any significant deviations from expectations could challenge existing Federal Reserve policies. Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics warned of potential market volatility if the data diverges from anticipated trends.
In conclusion, while the government shutdown has ended, its impact on economic data and market stability will be felt in the coming months. As agencies work to release delayed reports, economists and investors alike will be closely monitoring the data to gauge the true state of the US economy.
