Australian diners have an insatiable appetite for seafood, consuming around 350,000 to 400,000 tonnes a year. However, a new report warns that traditional fishing grounds for migratory species like tuna are increasingly vulnerable to climate change. The research, spearheaded by the non-profit Marine Stewardship Council (MSC), indicates that as ocean temperatures rise, fish will migrate to cooler waters.
While most Australians remain unaware of this looming crisis—given that much of the seafood consumed in Australia is processed in Thailand, the world’s largest exporter of canned tuna—the impact on Australia’s Pacific island neighbors could be catastrophic. Tuna fishing is a major industry in the Western Central Pacific Ocean, valued at an estimated US$4.9 billion (A$7.5 billion) annually.
Uncertain Future for Pacific Island Nations
Rosemarie Palu, an Australian operating longline fishing ventures from Tonga’s capital, Nuku’alofa, noted that tuna stocks are “definitely declining.” She explained, “The research is showing that the fish are moving out of Tongan waters.” Her husband, Eddie Palu, who captains one of their six vessels, expressed concerns about the future, stating, “The tuna industry in the Pacific is going to be pretty bad, say, 20 to 30 years from now, because of climate change. Because it’s going to get worse.”
The couple has already observed the fish migrating further from Tonga’s exclusive economic zone, necessitating longer journeys and increased fuel consumption—an expense that is rapidly rising. “Going forward, the tuna fisheries in the Pacific will be nothing like what we used to know. It will be getting less and less as the tuna move away into international waters, Central Pacific and move east towards South America,” Eddie explained. “It’s going to be a big problem for all the Pacific islands that survive on tuna fisheries.”
Historical Context: Weather Patterns and Tuna Migration
The MSC report suggests that to maintain a sustainable supply as tuna relocate, fishing quotas will need to be adjusted, and international cooperation will become essential. Bill Holden, MSC’s global head of tuna and a former fisherman in Tonga, reflected on how weather patterns like El Niño and La Niña have historically influenced tuna stocks. “With El Niño, the warm water moves eastward, and so the fish do too. And it’s the opposite for La Niña,” he noted.
“Climate change is redrawing the map of the sea. If we want sustainable tuna for future generations, we must redraw our management boundaries too.” – Lauren Koerner, MSC data science manager
Call for Regional Cooperation
The MSC report cautions that as climate change further disrupts tuna availability, tensions among developing Pacific nations could escalate. Joe Zelasney, manager of the Common Oceans Tuna Project, emphasized the potential devastation for small island states. “It’s crucial that governments and regional organizations work together now to safeguard livelihoods and food security,” he urged.
The study’s lead author, Lauren Koerner, highlighted that as fish migrate into new jurisdictions, existing quota agreements quickly become outdated. “Climate change is redrawing the map of the sea,” she said. “If we want sustainable tuna for future generations, we must redraw our management boundaries too.”
This research, published in the journal Cell Reports Sustainability, was a collaborative effort involving MSC, and experts from the Universities of Queensland, New South Wales, and Tasmania, Griffith University, and CSIRO.
Looking ahead, the need for adaptive management strategies and international collaboration becomes increasingly urgent. As the Pacific islands face this environmental and economic challenge, the global community’s response will be crucial in determining the future of the region’s tuna industry and the livelihoods it supports.
