Australian diners have an insatiable appetite for seafood, consuming between 350,000 to 400,000 tonnes annually. However, a new report warns that traditional fishing grounds for migratory species like tuna are increasingly vulnerable to climate change. The research, led by the non-profit Marine Stewardship Council (MSC), indicates that as ocean temperatures rise, fish are likely to migrate to cooler waters.
While Australians may remain largely unaware of this shift—since most of the tuna consumed is processed in Thailand, the world’s largest exporter of canned tuna—the implications for Australia’s island neighbors are profound. For these nations, tuna fishing is a vital industry, valued at approximately US$4.9 billion ($7.5 billion) annually in the Western Central Pacific Ocean.
Uncertain Future for Pacific Island Nations
Rosemarie Palu, an Australian operating longline fishing ventures from Tonga’s capital, Nuku’alofa, observes a notable decline in tuna stocks. “The research shows that the fish are moving out of Tongan waters,” she shared in an interview. Alongside her husband Eddie Palu, who captains one of their six vessels, she anticipates that while the next decade might be manageable, the long-term outlook is concerning.
“The tuna industry in the Pacific is going to be pretty bad, say, 20 to 30 years from now, because of climate change. Because it’s going to get worse,” Eddie remarked. Already, they have observed tuna migrating beyond Tonga’s exclusive economic zone, necessitating longer journeys and increased fuel consumption, a cost that continues to rise.
“Going forward, the tuna fisheries in the Pacific will be nothing like what we used to know. It will be getting less and less as the tuna move away into international waters, Central Pacific and move east towards South America,” Eddie said.
This shift poses a significant threat to Pacific islands heavily reliant on tuna fisheries for their economic survival.
Historical Patterns and Current Challenges
Historically, tuna availability has been influenced by climatic phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña. Bill Holden, now the MSC’s global head of tuna, recalls his early days as a fisherman in Tonga during the late 1980s, when catches varied with the number of vessels and weather patterns.
“With El Niño, the warm water moves eastward, and so the fish do too. And it’s the opposite for La Niña,” Holden explained.
As climate change continues to alter these patterns, the MSC report cautions that tensions among developing Pacific nations could escalate. Joe Zelasney, manager of the Common Oceans Tuna Project, highlights the potential devastation for small island states due to dwindling fish availability.
Cooperation and Sustainable Management
The MSC report emphasizes the need for international cooperation to safeguard livelihoods and food security. “It’s crucial that governments and regional organizations work together now,” Zelasney urged.
Lauren Koerner, the study’s lead author and MSC data science manager, warns that as fish move into new jurisdictions, existing quota agreements may quickly become obsolete. “Climate change is redrawing the map of the sea,” she noted. “If we want sustainable tuna for future generations, we must redraw our management boundaries too.”
The research, published in the journal Cell Reports Sustainability, was a collaborative effort involving MSC, and experts from the Universities of Queensland, New South Wales, Tasmania, Griffith University, and CSIRO.
“If we want sustainable tuna for future generations, we must redraw our management boundaries too,” Koerner emphasized.
This development follows a broader trend of climate-related challenges impacting global fisheries, underscoring the urgent need for adaptive management strategies to ensure the sustainability of vital marine resources.
