Liam McPherson, a 19-year-old first-time voter, hails from a family of One Nation supporters. When he cast his vote in May’s federal election, his decision was straightforward. “I’m pretty happy with what they [One Nation] are trying to achieve for the country,” McPherson told triple j hack. He cited the soaring cost of living as a pivotal factor, criticizing major parties for their inadequate response to affordability issues.
“Groceries used to cost a family of five $200, $300 for a week. Now you’re struggling to provide for a single bloke [with that amount of money],” he explained. McPherson, who works in agriculture, also expressed concerns over the focus on renewable energy, which he believes negatively impacts his industry. Additionally, he voiced apprehensions about immigration outpacing housing and infrastructure development. “I reckon we need a cut back on it. I reckon there’s too many people coming in,” he said.
While McPherson is among the mere 7 percent of One Nation supporters under 30, recent polls suggest this demographic might be expanding. Newspoll places One Nation’s support at 10 percent, while Redbridge reports 14 percent. Essential’s poll indicates the party’s support has doubled since the federal election, now surpassing national support for the Greens.
Understanding the Surge
Historically, One Nation has polled in the single digits, even on election day, according to Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist and pollster for Redbridge. The party’s supporter base is predominantly Baby Boomers, constituting nearly two in five (39 percent), compared to just 7 percent from Gen Z. However, the recent surge is not driven by the very old or young.
“The group that is triggering the growth in our polling numbers of One Nation are largely Gen Xers without a university qualification, who are renting or who have a mortgage and are feeling financial pain,” Samaras explained. This demographic shift raises questions about the underlying causes and potential longevity of this trend.
Policies and Disenfranchisement
One Nation attributes its rising support to “sensible policies” and leader Senator Pauline Hanson’s “consistent and clear positions on key issues such as net zero and high immigration,” according to a party spokesperson. Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell, a member of One Nation’s Victorian branch and the first to be elected to Victoria’s Legislative Council in 2022, echoed this sentiment.
“I was sick of seeing politicians and political parties chopping and changing their direction all the time, but One Nation, they had not changed their direction. They were consistent ever since day dot,” Tyrrell told triple j hack. She noted that her constituents often raise concerns about crime, cost of living, and immigration, viewing the latter as an infrastructure issue rather than one of race.
“We’re drowning in people at the moment and I’m not opposed to different cultures or anything. As long as they share the same values as Australians and they assimilate, I’m happy,” Tyrrell said.
Rod Caddies, One Nation’s leader in Western Australia, highlighted housing as a critical issue, especially for young people. “My sons and daughters have started talking to me about politics for the first time, and housing is a key reason,” he said.
Beyond Policies: Social Isolation and International Influences
While policies play a role, Samaras pointed out that One Nation’s support largely stems from outside major cities, driven by “the sense of social isolation.” He noted, “If you’re in a part of the country experiencing significant economic downturn — and let’s face it, large chunks of the Australian bush are — then you’re going to feel a little bit isolated and also probably left out from your contemporaries who are living in the big cities.”
International factors also contribute, with right-wing movements in the UK and US gaining traction in Australia. This global trend influences local political dynamics, adding complexity to the surge in One Nation’s support.
The Coalition’s Identity Crisis
Dr. Marija Taflaga, director of the Centre for the Study of Australian Politics at the Australian National University, emphasized the importance of viewing electoral trends within the broader political context. “We’re seeing the collapse in support for the centre-right party, the Liberals, who have no policy direction,” she noted, referencing a Newspoll that found Coalition support at a historic low.
The surge in One Nation’s support is prompting an identity crisis for the Coalition. Some members advocate for a more conservative approach, while others argue for moderate policies to regain urban seats. The recent self-demotion of senior conservative Andrew Hastie highlights this internal division.
“People don’t know what they’re voting for anymore, and they don’t have that clear direction from the Liberal Party … So they’re like, ‘One Nation is the one true conservative party left in Australia,'” Tyrrell said.
Future Prospects: Sustaining Support
Dr. Taflaga cautioned that it remains uncertain how many disgruntled voters will remain with One Nation long-term. “We are seeing more conservative, right-wing people going to One Nation, but it doesn’t mean they’ll stay there or stick with the party,” she said. The party’s future support will largely depend on the Coalition’s policy direction.
Internationally, movements like the UK’s Reform have gained popularity, particularly among younger voters, but Australia has not seen a similar trend. One Nation’s average voter age is 55, matching the Coalition’s, while Greens supporters average 31. Samaras noted that young Australians favor more radical change in areas like housing and immigration, often translating to votes for left-wing minor parties.
“Forty to 45 percent of Gen Z women are voting for the Greens in our surveys at the moment. The Green vote is in the low thirties across both genders amongst Australians between the ages of 18 and 28 years of age,” Samaras said.
The trend towards independents and minor parties indicates a challenge to the traditional two-party system. “What we have seen is the demise of the dominance of the duopoly. That’s absolutely certain, that’s gone,” Samaras concluded.
