The collapse of modern human civilization is considered by many experts to be inevitable. This assertion is not without precedent; history has witnessed the fall of at least 90 past civilizations and over 400 societies. The pressing question today is not if, but when this epochal event will occur.
Despite numerous warnings from scientists and historians who have meticulously studied the evidence over the past century, modern society appears woefully unprepared for such a collapse. The consequences are expected to be catastrophic, potentially leading to global panic, mass migration, societal failure, wars, plagues, and more. In an instant, wealth and food could vanish, leaving societies in turmoil.
Understanding the Drivers of Collapse
Scholars have identified various potential catalysts for this impending self-inflicted collapse. These include climate catastrophe, global food failure, extinction, overpopulation, overconsumption, nuclear war, universal toxic pollution, artificial intelligence, a global economic crash, and energy shortfall. Each of these factors represents a single facet of what is clearly a multi-faceted catastrophic emergency.
Historically, civilizations have mainly fallen due to food shortages, structural and institutional failures, disease, and climate change. The popular image of invading barbarian hordes is often a consequence, not a cause, of civilizational collapse. The British historian Arnold Toynbee, in his extensive 12-volume survey of 23 civilizations, concluded that the major cause of collapse was a failure of the creative impulse that built them. Toynbee famously stated,
“Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder,”
suggesting that decline and fall are usually self-inflicted and rarely the result of external forces.
The Fragility of Modern Civilization
Modern global civilization, despite its strong technological, economic, and communication ties, lacks the cultural, moral, and ideological cohesion that underpinned previous empires. This fragility is reminiscent of the Late Bronze Age Collapse, around 3200 years ago, when seven major civilizations around the eastern Mediterranean, Turkey, and North Africa fell simultaneously. These societies were closely connected by trade, intermarriage, and war, with climatic change being a significant factor in their downfall.
Over the past decade, numerous books and articles have been written to describe the main drivers of contemporary collapse. The Council for the Human Future has identified 10 catastrophic risks or megathreats, including resource scarcity, decline of Earth’s life support systems, nuclear war, food insecurity, and overpopulation. These threats are interconnected and cannot be addressed in isolation, presenting the gravest emergency in human history.
The Role of Human Delusion
One of the most overlooked yet potentially harmful causes of collapse is delusion—the human capacity to believe whatever they wish, regardless of the facts. The primary causes of collapse are therefore the four main human delusions: money, politics, religion, and the false narratives we tell ourselves. These delusions often fail when confronted with the hard facts of the physical world.
The problem science faces in sounding its many warnings about catastrophe is that religion and false prophets have historically predicted doom without factual basis, leading to skepticism among the public. This skepticism is compounded by the narcissistic and psychopathic qualities of certain leaders and the delusion of perpetual economic growth.
Addressing the Inevitable
While some may demand a firm date for collapse, the complex interaction of the 10 megathreats makes this impossible. However, the process is well underway, with factors such as global food insecurity, water shortages, nuclear threats, and climate tipping points contributing to the slide towards collapse.
It may not yet be too late to save a significant part of modern civilization. However, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. As Toynbee’s hypothesis suggests, our civilization may indeed die by its own hand, sooner rather than later. As such, “Died of a delusion” seems a fitting epitaph for our civilization’s tombstone.
The views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Pearls and Irritations.
