Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is preparing for a potentially challenging diplomatic visit to the United States, as prospects for a one-on-one meeting with President Donald Trump remain uncertain. This development could signal potential strains in the US-Australia alliance, especially as Albanese embarks on a five-night trip to attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
As of now, a formal meeting with Trump is not guaranteed, and discussions may be limited to a brief, informal “pull-aside” during a reception hosted by Trump on Tuesday night. There are no plans for a formal meeting at the White House or a joint press conference, raising concerns about the effectiveness of Albanese’s foreign policy strategy.
Implications for US-Australia Relations
The potential absence of a meeting with Trump adds to a series of diplomatic setbacks for Albanese, following unsuccessful attempts to finalize security agreements during visits to Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea. Albanese has maintained a calm demeanor, suggesting that opportunities for discussions with Trump may arise at upcoming multilateral summits in Malaysia and South Korea later in October.
However, foreign affairs experts argue that the lack of a meeting is problematic. They emphasize the importance of establishing a strong working relationship between the two leaders to maintain the robustness of the US-Australia relationship. Some experts believe Albanese should have sought to build a personal rapport with Trump earlier, potentially during his campaign or as president-elect.
Comparative Diplomatic Efforts
In contrast, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has managed to forge a close relationship with Trump, despite their differing political ideologies. Starmer’s efforts included a two-hour meeting in New York during the US presidential election campaign, which led to subsequent engagements, including hosting Trump for a state visit to the United Kingdom.
Arthur Sinodinos, Australia’s former ambassador to Washington, emphasized the urgency of a meeting, stating, “It is important for the two leaders to meet as soon as possible: they are the ultimate decision makers.” He added that clarity from Trump on the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine pact, currently under review by the Pentagon, is particularly crucial.
Expert Opinions and Public Sentiment
Michael Fullilove, executive director of the Lowy Institute think tank, expressed concern over the unprecedented delay in a meeting between the two leaders, noting, “Donald Trump was elected president 10 months ago, and he and Mr Albanese have never met each other. This is unprecedented.” He highlighted the risks associated with this delay, given the United States’ role as Australia’s primary security partner.
“The US-Australia relationship feels thin at the moment. Mr Albanese’s job is to thicken it … There are risks associated with meeting President Trump, but we also have equities to protect.” — Michael Fullilove
Public opinion on the necessity of a meeting is divided. A recent Resolve Political Monitor survey found that 52% of Australians believe it is important for Albanese to meet Trump, despite a majority holding a negative view of the US president. However, over a third of voters do not see the meeting as essential.
Future Prospects and Diplomatic Strategies
Despite the uncertainty, both leaders have maintained communication, having spoken on the phone four times this month. Trump further fueled speculation about a potential meeting by publicly addressing Albanese’s upcoming visit, albeit in a contentious context involving Australian journalist John Lyons.
The window for a meeting has narrowed due to Trump’s commitment to attend the funeral of right-wing influencer Charlie Kirk on Sunday. When questioned about the meeting, Albanese remained noncommittal, stating, “We will meet when we meet,” and emphasizing the fluid nature of diplomatic arrangements.
Albanese was previously scheduled to meet Trump in June at the G7 summit in Canada, but plans were disrupted by Trump’s early return to the US to address the Iran-Israel conflict. As Albanese prepares for his US trip, the diplomatic community will be closely watching for any developments that could impact the longstanding alliance between the two nations.
