The preliminary finals of the 2025 AFL season are upon us, with only four teams remaining in the quest for premiership glory. As Geelong Cats prepare to face Hawthorn Hawks, and Collingwood Magpies gear up against Brisbane Lions, the stakes have never been higher. Experts David King and Leigh Montagna from Fox Footy offer their insights on where these crucial matches will be won or lost.
From Collingwood’s formidable defensive strategies to Geelong’s tactical aces, the upcoming games promise to be a thrilling display of skill and strategy. As fans eagerly await the clashes, here’s a comprehensive breakdown of what to expect.
Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks: Tactical Maneuvers and Key Players
Geelong Cats have held a psychological edge over Hawthorn Hawks in recent encounters, with the Hawks failing to secure a victory against them since 2022. However, the dynamics could shift with the inclusion of Tom Barrass, a pivotal recruit for Hawthorn. Known for his defensive prowess, Barrass could play a decisive role in Friday night’s game.
Hawthorn’s strategy hinges on their ability to capitalize on turnovers, a model that has proven successful throughout the 2025 finals series. “You need to be top three in turnover differential to win flags,” noted Leigh Montagna, emphasizing Hawthorn’s strength in this area. The Hawks lead the AFL with an average of 65.5 points from turnovers, a statistic that underscores their offensive strategy.
“This is Hawthorn’s model. When they have won the turnover battle, they are 16-zip,” Montagna praised, highlighting the team’s reliance on turnover success.
Geelong’s challenge will be to mitigate Barrass’s impact, particularly by exploiting his vulnerabilities when positioned up the ground. David King suggests that Geelong forward Shannon Neale could benefit from drawing Barrass away from his comfort zone inside the 50.
“The more times you can take Tom Barrass to the wing, the better off their forward 50 will be,” King advised.
Player to Watch: Patrick Dangerfield
Veteran Geelong player Patrick Dangerfield is expected to have a significant impact on the match. Known for his explosive starts, Dangerfield has been instrumental in Geelong’s previous finals campaigns. His presence in the midfield could set the tone for the Cats, as seen in past performances where he dominated early quarters to give his team an edge.
“Dangerfield set the game up – he just ripped their heart out and they cashed in from there,” King recalled of Dangerfield’s past exploits.
Collingwood Magpies vs. Brisbane Lions: Defensive Fortresses and Offensive Gambles
Collingwood Magpies’ defense is set to be reinforced by the return of Jeremy Howe, a key player whose presence has been missed due to injuries. The Magpies have lost only one game with a fit Howe in defense this season, underscoring his importance to their defensive setup.
Collingwood’s strategy revolves around a patient, methodical approach, focusing on defensive solidity. “Good luck moving the ball full length of the ground against the Pies,” remarked David King, highlighting the challenges opponents face against their structured defense.
“Seven out of 10 – that number is just outrageous,” King said, referring to Collingwood’s efficiency in scoring after going long down the line.
In contrast, Brisbane Lions are known for their bold, corridor-focused play, a strategy that forces opponents to adapt. Leigh Montagna notes that Brisbane’s willingness to take risks and back their match-winning players could disrupt Collingwood’s defensive plans.
“He’s a giver Fages, he’s not a taker,” King quipped about Brisbane coach Chris Fagan’s empowering approach.
Player to Watch: Nick Daicos
Nick Daicos, the young star of Collingwood, is poised to play a crucial role in the upcoming match. His performances against Brisbane have been exceptional, with significant contributions in disposals, score involvements, and goals. Daicos’s ability to influence the game could be a deciding factor for the Magpies.
“How well he plays could be the difference for the Pies,” Montagna concluded.
Implications and Looking Ahead
As the preliminary finals approach, the strategies and performances of key players will be under intense scrutiny. Geelong’s ability to neutralize Hawthorn’s turnover game and Collingwood’s efforts to maintain their defensive integrity against Brisbane’s aggressive style will be critical.
The outcomes of these matches will not only determine the finalists but also set the stage for a thrilling conclusion to the 2025 AFL season. Fans and analysts alike will be watching closely as these teams vie for a spot in the grand final, with every play potentially altering the course of the competition.
