For over a decade, Indonesia, a pivotal nation in Southeast Asia and the world’s third-largest democracy, has been courted by both Washington and Beijing. Now, it appears China has secured a significant diplomatic victory. This development comes without formal treaties, which are prohibited under the Indonesian Constitution, but signals a shift in alliances as Indonesia distances itself from the United States.
Former Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr noted, “Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is delivering a savvy Javanese judgment on the slide in America’s credibility and the very idea of a unipolar world marshalled from Washington.” This shift has profound implications for countries like Australia, which remains closely allied with the US, viewing it as a distant yet reliable protector.
Indonesia’s Political Landscape and Economic Ambitions
Prabowo Subianto, a seasoned politician, aspires to be recognized as a statesman of the world’s fourth-largest nation. His leadership is marked by efforts to drive economic growth, which currently exceeds 5% GDP, and maintain social harmony in a Muslim-majority, multi-faith, secular democratic state. However, recent domestic unrest poses significant challenges to his administration.
Last week’s nationwide riots, sparked by public discontent over parliamentary perks and economic grievances, resulted in at least 10 fatalities and over 1000 injuries. The unrest also led to the arrest of approximately 1240 individuals. The UN High Commission for Human Rights has called for an investigation into “alleged violations of international human rights law,” emphasizing the need for authorities to respect peaceful assembly and freedom of expression.
Prabowo’s Response and International Relations
Initially, Prabowo canceled a trip to China to address the riots, which were deemed too severe to ignore. However, his absence was interpreted as a lack of confidence in Vice President Gibran Rakabuming, who is seen as inexperienced in governance. Gibran, the son of former President Joko Widodo, has been tasked with managing the volatile situation in West Papua, a region with a history of conflict and calls for independence.
Prabowo eventually attended the 80th anniversary of China’s victory in World War II, joining a cohort of 25 foreign leaders, including notable figures like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. This move underscores Indonesia’s growing alignment with China, as Prabowo seeks to bolster his international standing among influential autocrats.
Historical Context and Future Implications
Indonesia’s current political climate is reminiscent of past authoritarian regimes. Prabowo’s party, Gerindra, advocates for a return to the original 1945 Constitution, which lacks guarantees for human rights and concentrates power in the presidency. This echoes the era of President Soeharto, under whom Prabowo served as a senior army general before his dismissal in 1998 for alleged human rights abuses.
Despite these challenges, Indonesia’s resilience is notable. The nation has endured significant crises, including Japanese occupation during World War II and the 1965 anti-Communist purges. Today, as Indonesia navigates its complex political landscape, the international community watches closely.
Australia, in particular, faces a critical juncture in its relationship with Indonesia. As the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade states, “Australia’s security, prosperity, and economic future are linked to Southeast Asia.” This shift in Indonesia’s alliances presents both opportunities and challenges for Canberra.
Opportunities for Australia
With Indonesia moving away from the US, Australia has a chance to deepen its engagement with its northern neighbor. This could involve offering visa-free travel to Indonesian tourists, expanding educational scholarships, and fostering cultural exchanges. Such initiatives could strengthen people-to-people ties and promote mutual understanding.
As Indonesia’s political dynamics evolve, Australia’s approach will be crucial in shaping future relations. By focusing on collaboration and respect for sovereignty, Australia can position itself as a valuable partner in Southeast Asia.
The views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Pearls and Irritations.
